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Prediction and Prediction Error in Autism: A Meta-Analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Results.

Overview

Authors: Hjalmar Nobel Norrman1, Yating Huang1, Annelies van’t Westeinde2,3, Tessa M van Leeuwen4,5, Peter Fransson6, Sven Bölte1,7,8, Janina Neufeld1,9
ORCID iDs: Hjalmar Nobel Norrman, Tessa M van Leeuwen
  1. Center of Neurodevelopmental Disorders at Karolinska Institutet, Centre for Psychiatry Research, Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm Health Care Services, Stockholm, Sweden
  2. Pediatric Endocrinology Unit, Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Karolinska Institutet, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
  3. Pediatric Endocrinology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden
  4. Department of Communication and Cognition, Tilburg School of Humanities and Digital Sciences, Tilburg University, Tilburg, the Netherlands
  5. Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
  6. Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
  7. Curtin Autism Research Group, Curtin School of Allied Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
  8. Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Stockholm Health Care Services, Stockholm, Sweden
  9. Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Uppsala, Sweden
Institutions: Karolinska Institutet (Sweden); Stockholm Health Care Services (Sweden); Karolinska University Hospital (Sweden); Sahlgrenska University Hospital (Sweden); University of Gothenburg (Sweden); Radboud University Nijmegen (Netherlands); Tilburg University (Netherlands); Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour (Netherlands); Curtin University (Australia); Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study (Sweden)
Journal: Biological psychiatry global open science, volume 6, issue 5, article 100760
Dates: received 6 January 2026; accepted 9 May 2026; published online 15 May 2026
Type: Research article · Language: English
License: CC BY
Identifiers: DOI 10.1016/j.bpsgos.2026.100760 · PMID 42388528 · PMCID PMC13319389 · OpenAlex W7161289208
Open access: gold, a free copy (OpenAlex)
Status: data only
Categories: fMRI (modality), human (organism), autism (population), cognitive (subfield)
Methods: Statistics
Keywords: Activation likelihood estimation (ALE), Autism, Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), Meta-analysis, Predictive processes, Review
Topic: Autism Spectrum Disorder Research (Cognitive Neuroscience, Neuroscience), according to OpenAlex
Funding: Merck Sharp and Dohme K.K.; Karolinska Institutet (2022-01018); Swedish Research Council (2022-02736); Riksbankens Jubileumsfond
Citations: cited by 1 paper (Europe PMC); 82 references in the paper

Abstract

Background: In autism spectrum condition (ASC), altered priors/predictions or prediction errors have been hypothesized to increase the influence of bottom-up sensory input, relative to top-down prior knowledge. Such alterations could account for several autistic features, but their empirical basis is unclear. In neurotypical (NT) individuals, multiple neuroimaging meta-analyses have aimed to outline domain-general prediction networks of the brain. However, there has not been a similar meta-analysis in autism.

Methods: We performed a literature search for functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetoencephalography studies with autistic participants. The contrasts that explicitly or implicitly involved the processing of priors/predictions and prediction errors were selected. Contrasts were divided into those that reported stronger activation in ASC compared with NT groups (ASC > NT; 8 contrasts; 139 ASC, 150 NT) and vice versa (NT > ASC; 13 contrasts; 261 ASC, 289 NT). The convergence of differences between the groups was then tested using activation likelihood estimation meta-analysis. We also identified 37 contrasts without significant group differences.

Results: ASC > NT did not result in significant convergence. NT > ASC converged in a cluster in the medial frontal gyrus/cingulate gyrus.

Conclusions: We found converging NT > ASC activation differences in an area associated with error monitoring and uncertainty estimation. Our results are generally consistent with notions of altered predictions or prediction errors in autism, pointing to differences at high levels of the information-processing hierarchy. However, we recommend a cautious interpretation, given the limited number of available contrasts and the high proportion of null results.

Reproduced under the paper's license (CC BY), from the paper cited above.

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Version 2, 28 September 2026

  • Authors: added Hjalmar Nobel Norrman (0009-0006-6533-744X); removed Hjalmar Nobel Norrman

Version 1, 28 September 2026: the first record

Recorded: type, language, journal, volume, issue, pages, dates, 7 authors, 6 keywords, 4 funders, 78 references.

Cite

This paper

Nobel Norrman, H., Huang, Y., van’t Westeinde, A., van Leeuwen, T. M., Fransson, P., Bölte, S., & Neufeld, J. (2026). Prediction and Prediction Error in Autism: A Meta-Analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Results. Biological psychiatry global open science, 6(5), 100760. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpsgos.2026.100760

BibTeX

@article{nobelnorrman2026prediction,
author = {Nobel Norrman, Hjalmar and Huang, Yating and van’t Westeinde, Annelies and van Leeuwen, Tessa M and Fransson, Peter and Bölte, Sven and Neufeld, Janina},
title = {{Prediction and Prediction Error in Autism: A Meta-Analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Results}},
journal = {Biological psychiatry global open science},
year = {2026},
month = may,
volume = {6},
number = {5},
pages = {100760},
publisher = {Elsevier},
issn = {2667-1743},
doi = {10.1016/j.bpsgos.2026.100760},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpsgos.2026.100760},
pmid = {42388528},
pmcid = {PMC13319389}
}

RIS

TY - JOUR
AU - Nobel Norrman, Hjalmar
AU - Huang, Yating
AU - van’t Westeinde, Annelies
AU - van Leeuwen, Tessa M
AU - Fransson, Peter
AU - Bölte, Sven
AU - Neufeld, Janina
TI - Prediction and Prediction Error in Autism: A Meta-Analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Results
T2 - Biological psychiatry global open science
J2 - Biol Psychiatry Glob Open Sci
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/05/15
VL - 6
IS - 5
SP - 100760
SN - 2667-1743
PB - Elsevier
DO - 10.1016/j.bpsgos.2026.100760
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpsgos.2026.100760
LA - en
ER -

CSL-JSON

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