Targeted stool metabolomics suggests exploratory catecholamine- and tryptophan-linked metabolic features in autism spectrum disorder.
The 4 matches
- [1] § Materials and methods › Statistical analysis › Machine learning ↔ statistical_analysis.Rmd, lines 953–1036 · score 0.77 · Brier score, predicted probabilities, positive class, Calibration, LOESS, smoothed
- [2] § Results › Discriminative performance of metabolite features in classifying ASD ↔ statistical_analysis.Rmd, lines 491–587 · score 0.62 · cross validated, positive class, random forest, predicting ASD, ROC, AUC
- [3] § Results › Model calibration performance ↔ statistical_analysis.Rmd, lines 953–1036 · score 0.62 · Brier score, predicted probabilities, calibration, LOESS, smoothed, curves
- [4] § Materials and methods › Statistical analysis › Machine learning ↔ statistical_analysis.Rmd, lines 491–587 · score 0.60 · Random forest classifiers, cross validation, seed, trees, workflow, fold
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The authors' code
R Markdown · 1,040 lines · 30 KB · MIT · 4 matches
- ---
- title: "Targeted ASD Stool Metabolomics Analysis"
- author: "Kevin Liu"
- date: "`r Sys.Date()`"
- output:
- pdf_document:
- toc: true
- keep_tex: true
- ---
- ```{r setup, include=FALSE, message=FALSE}
- knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE)
- options(scipen = 999)
- library(tidyverse)
- library(egg)
- library(rstatix)
- library(tidymodels)
- library(yardstick)
- library(ranger)
- library(pROC)
- library(patchwork)
- library(scales)
- library(broom)
- library(ggpubr)
- theme_set(theme_article() +
- theme(aspect.ratio = 1))
- ```
- ```{r read_data, message=FALSE}
- clin_data = read_csv("data/clin_data.csv")
- avg_data = read_csv("data/data_averaged.csv") %>%
- left_join(clin_data, by = "subject_id") %>%
- relocate(subject_id, group, sex, age) %>%
- mutate(group = factor(group, levels = c("NAC", "ASD")),
- sex = factor(sex, levels = c("Female", "Male")))
- norm_data = read_csv("data/data_normalized.csv") %>%
- left_join(clin_data, by = "subject_id") %>%
- relocate(subject_id, group, sex, age) %>%
- mutate(group = factor(group, levels = c("NAC", "ASD")),
- sex = factor(sex, levels = c("Female", "Male")))
- name_map = read_csv("data/name_map.csv", na = c("", "NaN"))
- levels(avg_data$group)
- levels(norm_data$group)
- ```
- ```{r descriptive_stats}
- # Figure S1
- avg_data %>%
- ggplot(aes(x = age, fill = group)) +
- geom_histogram(data = subset(avg_data, group == "NAC"),
- aes(y = after_stat(count)), binwidth = 1, boundary = 0, closed = "left") +
- geom_histogram(data = subset(avg_data, group == "ASD"),
- aes(y = -after_stat(count)), binwidth = 1, boundary = 0, closed = "left") +
- scale_y_continuous(labels = abs, limits = c(-10, 10)) +
- scale_fill_manual(values = c("NAC" = "#21918c", "ASD" = "#fde725")) +
- labs(x = "Age (years)", y = "Number of Subjects", fill = "Group") +
- theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
- geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linewidth = 0.25) +
- coord_flip()
- age_tbl = avg_data %>%
- group_by(group) %>%
- summarise(
- value = sprintf(
- "%.2f ± %.2f, [%.2f, %.2f]",
- mean(age, na.rm = TRUE),
- sd(age, na.rm = TRUE),
- min(age, na.rm = TRUE),
- max(age, na.rm = TRUE)
- ),
- .groups = "drop"
- ) %>%
- pivot_wider(names_from = group, values_from = value) %>%
- mutate(
- Characteristic = "Age (mean ± SD, [min, max])")
- sex_tbl = avg_data %>%
- count(group, sex) %>%
- group_by(group) %>%
- mutate(value = sprintf("%d (%.1f%%)", n, 100 * n / sum(n))) %>%
- ungroup() %>%
- select(group, sex, value) %>%
- pivot_wider(names_from = group, values_from = value) %>%
- mutate(Characteristic = as.character(sex)) %>%
- select(-sex)
- wilcox.test(age ~ group, data = avg_data)
- fisher.test(table(avg_data$group, avg_data$sex))
- # Table 1
- bind_rows(age_tbl, sex_tbl) %>%
- select(Characteristic, NAC, ASD) %>%
- write.csv("output_data/1_demographics.csv")
- ```
- ```{r get_mol_summary}
- num_cols = avg_data %>%
- select(where(is.numeric), -subject_id, -age) %>%
- names()
- # Table 2
- avg_data %>%
- select(group, all_of(num_cols)) %>%
- pivot_longer(
- cols = -group,
- names_to = "variable",
- values_to = "value"
- ) %>%
- group_by(group, variable) %>%
- summarise(
- n = n(),
- n_zero = sum(value == 0, na.rm = TRUE),
- pct_zero = n_zero / n * 100,
- n_nonzero = sum(value != 0 & !is.na(value)),
- # stats excluding zeros
- mean = mean(if_else(value == 0, NA_real_, value), na.rm = TRUE),
- sd = sd(if_else(value == 0, NA_real_, value), na.rm = TRUE),
- min = min(if_else(value == 0, NA_real_, value), na.rm = TRUE),
- max = max(if_else(value == 0, NA_real_, value), na.rm = TRUE),
- median = median(if_else(value == 0, NA_real_, value), na.rm = TRUE),
- .groups = "drop"
- ) %>%
- ungroup() %>%
- mutate(across(where(is.numeric), \(x) round(x, 2))) %>%
- mutate(range = str_c("[", min, ", ", max, "]"),
- mean_sd = str_c(mean, " (", sd, ")"),
- zeros = str_c(n_zero, "/", n, " (", pct_zero, "%)")) %>%
- select(group, variable, mean_sd, range, median, zeros) %>%
- write_csv("output_data/2_mol_summary.csv")
- ```
- ```{r viz_data, fig.dpi=300, fig.width=8}
- # Figure 1
- avg_data %>%
- pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("mol_"), names_to = "molecule") %>%
- left_join(name_map %>% select(mol_name, compound_acronym), by = c("molecule" = "mol_name")) %>%
- mutate(molecule = compound_acronym) %>%
- select(-compound_acronym) %>%
- ggplot(aes(x = group, y = value, fill = group)) +
- geom_violin() +
- geom_jitter(width = 0.2, alpha = 0.5) +
- facet_wrap(~ molecule, scales = "free_y", ncol = 6) +
- labs(x = "", y = "Concentration (nM)",
- fill = "Group") +
- theme(legend.position = "bottom", aspect.ratio = 1,
- strip.text = element_text(size = 6)) +
- scale_fill_manual(values = c("#21918c", "#fde725"))
- ```
- ```{r corr_matrix, fig.width=10}
- num_vars = c("age", grep("^mol_", names(avg_data), value = TRUE))
- name_lookup = setNames(c(name_map$compound_acronym, "Age"),
- c(name_map$mol_name, "age"))
- axis_levels = num_vars
- corr_lower_by_group = function(df_group, group_label) {
- mat = df_group %>%
- select(all_of(num_vars)) %>%
- as.matrix()
- rc = Hmisc::rcorr(mat, type = "spearman")
- R = rc$r
- P = rc$P
- vars = colnames(R)
- idx = which(lower.tri(R), arr.ind = TRUE)
- tibble(
- Group = group_label,
- Var1 = vars[idx[,1]],
- Var2 = vars[idx[,2]],
- r = as.numeric(R[idx]),
- p = as.numeric(P[idx])
- )
- }
- cor_df = bind_rows(
- corr_lower_by_group(filter(avg_data, group == "ASD"), "ASD"),
- corr_lower_by_group(filter(avg_data, group == "NAC"), "NAC")
- ) %>%
- group_by(Group) %>%
- mutate(
- p_adj = p.adjust(p, method = "fdr"), # FDR within each group
- p_cap = pmax(p_adj, 1e-300), # avoid -Inf for -log10
- Var1 = factor(Var1, levels = axis_levels),
- Var2 = factor(Var2, levels = axis_levels),
- Significant = !is.na(p_adj) & p_adj < 0.05
- ) %>%
- ungroup() %>%
- mutate(
- Var1_label = recode(Var1, !!!name_lookup),
- Var2_label = recode(Var2, !!!name_lookup)
- )
- # Figure 5
- cor_df %>%
- ggplot(aes(x = Var1_label, y = Var2_label)) +
- geom_point(aes(fill = r, size = -log10(p_cap)),
- shape = 21, color = "grey60", stroke = 0.1, na.rm = TRUE) +
- geom_point(data = filter(cor_df, Significant),
- aes(size = -log10(p_cap)),
- shape = 21, fill = NA, color = "black", stroke = 0.5, na.rm = TRUE) +
- scale_fill_gradient2(low = "blue", mid = "white", high = "red",
- midpoint = 0, limits = c(-1, 1),
- oob = scales::squish, name = "Spearman r") +
- scale_size(range = c(1.5, 6), name = NULL, guide = "none") +
- coord_fixed() +
- facet_wrap(~ Group, ncol = 2) +
- theme_light() +
- theme(
- axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, vjust = 1),
- legend.position = "right"
- ) +
- labs(x = NULL, y = NULL)
- # Table S5
- cor_df %>%
- filter(p_adj < 0.05) %>%
- select(Group, Var1_label, Var2_label, r, p, p_adj) %>%
- mutate(
- r = signif(r, 3),
- p = formatC(p, format = "e", digits = 2),
- p_adj = formatC(p_adj, format = "e", digits = 2)
- ) %>%
- write_csv("output_data/s5_groupwise_sigif_corr.csv")
- ```
- ```{r corr_scatterplots_all_significant_patchwork, fig.dpi=300, fig.width=10, fig.height=12}
- # Supplementary Figure 2
- # Scatterplots for all FDR-significant within-group correlations
- cor_df_labeled = cor_df %>%
- select(-any_of(c("Var1_label", "Var2_label"))) %>%
- left_join(
- name_map %>% select(mol_name, compound_acronym),
- by = c("Var1" = "mol_name")
- ) %>%
- rename(Var1_label = compound_acronym) %>%
- left_join(
- name_map %>% select(mol_name, compound_acronym),
- by = c("Var2" = "mol_name")
- ) %>%
- rename(Var2_label = compound_acronym) %>%
- mutate(
- Var1 = as.character(Var1),
- Var2 = as.character(Var2),
- Var1_label = if_else(Var1 == "age", "Age", Var1_label),
- Var2_label = if_else(Var2 == "age", "Age", Var2_label)
- )
- panel_order = tribble(
- ~Group, ~Var1, ~Var2, ~order,
- "ASD", "mol_trp", "mol_niacin", 1,
- "NAC", "mol_trp", "mol_kyn", 2,
- "ASD", "mol_trp", "mol_gaba", 3,
- "ASD", "mol_trp", "mol_ne", 4,
- "ASD", "mol_trp", "mol_aea", 5,
- "NAC", "mol_trp", "mol_aea", 6,
- "ASD", "mol_ne", "mol_aea", 7,
- "ASD", "mol_niacin", "mol_gaba", 8,
- "ASD", "mol_3nt", "mol_ua", 9,
- "ASD", "mol_lca", "mol_dca", 10,
- "NAC", "mol_lca", "mol_dca", 11
- )
- sig_corr_stats = cor_df_labeled %>%
- filter(Significant == TRUE) %>%
- inner_join(panel_order, by = c("Group", "Var1", "Var2")) %>%
- arrange(order) %>%
- mutate(
- q_label = case_when(
- p_adj < 0.001 ~ "q < 0.001",
- TRUE ~ str_c("q = ", sprintf("%.3f", p_adj))
- ),
- stat_label = str_c(
- "Spearman r = ", sprintf("%.2f", r),
- "\nFDR ", q_label
- ),
- panel_title = str_c(Group, ": ", Var2_label, " vs ", Var1_label)
- )
- plot_sig_corr_pair = function(group_label, var1, var2, var1_label, var2_label,
- stat_label, panel_title) {
- plot_df = avg_data %>%
- filter(group == group_label) %>%
- transmute(
- Group = group,
- x = .data[[var2]],
- y = .data[[var1]]
- ) %>%
- filter(x > 0, y > 0)
- label_df = plot_df %>%
- summarise(
- x = 10^(min(log10(x), na.rm = TRUE) + 0.05 * diff(range(log10(x), na.rm = TRUE))),
- y = 10^(max(log10(y), na.rm = TRUE) - 0.05 * diff(range(log10(y), na.rm = TRUE)))
- ) %>%
- mutate(label = stat_label)
- ggplot(plot_df, aes(x = x, y = y)) +
- geom_point(
- aes(fill = Group),
- shape = 21,
- color = "black",
- stroke = 0.2,
- size = 1.8,
- alpha = 0.8
- ) +
- geom_smooth(
- method = "loess",
- se = FALSE,
- linewidth = 0.5,
- color = "black") +
- geom_text(
- data = label_df,
- aes(x = x, y = y, label = label),
- inherit.aes = FALSE,
- hjust = 0,
- vjust = 1,
- size = 2.5,
- lineheight = 0.95
- ) +
- scale_x_log10() +
- scale_y_log10() +
- scale_fill_manual(values = c("NAC" = "#21918c", "ASD" = "#fde725")) +
- labs(
- title = panel_title,
- x = str_c(var2_label, " (nM, log10)"),
- y = str_c(var1_label, " (nM, log10)"),
- fill = "Group"
- ) +
- theme(
- plot.title = element_text(size = 8),
- axis.title = element_text(size = 7),
- axis.text = element_text(size = 6),
- aspect.ratio = 1
- )
- }
- sig_corr_plots = pmap(
- sig_corr_stats %>%
- select(
- group_label = Group,
- var1 = Var1,
- var2 = Var2,
- var1_label = Var1_label,
- var2_label = Var2_label,
- stat_label,
- panel_title
- ),
- plot_sig_corr_pair
- )
- wrap_plots(sig_corr_plots, ncol = 3, guides = "collect") &
- theme(
- legend.position = "bottom",
- legend.title = element_text(size = 9),
- legend.text = element_text(size = 9)
- )
- ```
- ```{r univar_tests}
- # norm_data %>%
- # pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("mol_"), names_to = "metabolite") %>%
- # group_by(metabolite) %>%
- # wilcox_test(value ~ group) %>%
- # adjust_pvalue(method = "fdr") %>%
- # arrange(p) %>%
- # left_join(name_map %>% select(mol_name, compound_name), by = c("metabolite" = "mol_name"))
- ```
- ```{r adj_univar_tests}
- adj_univar_lm = norm_data %>%
- pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("mol_"), names_to = "molecule", values_to = "value") %>%
- group_by(molecule) %>%
- do(tidy(lm(value ~ group + age + sex, data = .))) %>%
- ungroup() %>%
- filter(term == "groupASD") %>%
- mutate(p_adj = p.adjust(p.value, method = "fdr")) %>%
- arrange(p.value) %>%
- select(molecule, estimate, std.error, statistic, p.value, p_adj) %>%
- left_join(name_map %>% select(mol_name, compound_acronym), by = c("molecule" = "mol_name")) %>%
- mutate(molecule = compound_acronym) %>%
- select(-compound_acronym)
- ```
- ```{r log2fc, fig.dpi=300}
- log2fc_result = norm_data %>%
- pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("mol_"), names_to = "molecule", values_to = "value") %>%
- group_by(group, molecule) %>%
- summarise(mean_value = mean(value, na.rm = TRUE), .groups = "drop") %>%
- pivot_wider(names_from = group, values_from = mean_value) %>%
- mutate(
- log2_fc = (ASD - NAC) * log2(10) # Convert log10 difference to log2 scale
- ) %>%
- arrange(desc(log2_fc)) %>%
- left_join(name_map %>% select(mol_name, compound_acronym), by = c("molecule" = "mol_name")) %>%
- mutate(molecule = compound_acronym) %>%
- select(-compound_acronym)
- # Figure 2
- log2fc_result %>%
- mutate(molecule = fct_rev(fct_inorder(molecule))) %>%
- ggplot(aes(x = molecule, y = log2_fc, fill = log2_fc > 0)) +
- geom_col() +
- coord_flip() +
- scale_fill_manual(values = c("TRUE" = "#fde725", "FALSE" = "#21918c"),
- labels = c("NAC > ASD", "ASD > NAC")) +
- labs(
- title = "Log2 Fold Change (ASD vs. NAC)",
- x = NULL,
- y = "Log2 Fold Change",
- fill = "Direction"
- ) +
- ylim(-2.25, 2.25) +
- theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
- geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed", color = "gray") +
- geom_hline(yintercept = -1, linetype = "dashed", color = "gray")
- # Table S2
- log2fc_result %>%
- left_join(adj_univar_lm, by = "molecule") %>%
- mutate(across(where(is.numeric), \(x) round(x, 4))) %>%
- arrange(p.value) %>%
- left_join(name_map %>% select(compound_acronym, compound_name), by = c("molecule" = "compound_acronym")) %>%
- mutate(molecule = str_c(compound_name, " (", molecule, ")")) %>%
- select(-compound_name) %>%
- write_csv("output_data/s2_log2fc_adj_univar.csv")
- ```
- ```{r ne_sensitivity, message=FALSE, fig.width=5, fig.height=4}
- # NE sensitivity check
- # # NE distribution by group
- # ggplot(avg_data, aes(x = group, y = mol_ne, color = group)) +
- # geom_boxplot(outlier.shape = NA) +
- # geom_jitter(width = 0.1, alpha = 0.7, size = 2) +
- # labs(x = NULL, y = "Norepinephrine (nM)")
- # Top NE values
- ne_top = avg_data %>%
- arrange(desc(mol_ne)) %>%
- select(subject_id, group, sex, age, mol_ne) %>%
- slice_head(n = 10)
- ne_top
- # IQR-based outlier threshold
- Q1_ne = quantile(avg_data$mol_ne, 0.25, na.rm = TRUE)
- Q3_ne = quantile(avg_data$mol_ne, 0.75, na.rm = TRUE)
- IQR_ne = Q3_ne - Q1_ne
- upper_bound_ne = Q3_ne + 1.5 * IQR_ne
- upper_bound_ne
- avg_data_ne = avg_data %>%
- mutate(ne_outlier = mol_ne > upper_bound_ne)
- # Full-data test
- wilcox.test(mol_ne ~ group, data = avg_data_ne)
- # Outlier-removed test
- avg_data_ne_no_outliers = avg_data_ne %>%
- filter(!ne_outlier)
- wilcox.test(mol_ne ~ group, data = avg_data_ne_no_outliers)
- # Mean and median by group
- avg_data_ne %>%
- group_by(group) %>%
- summarise(
- mean_ne = mean(mol_ne, na.rm = TRUE),
- median_ne = median(mol_ne, na.rm = TRUE),
- min_ne = min(mol_ne, na.rm = TRUE),
- max_ne = max(mol_ne, na.rm = TRUE),
- .groups = "drop"
- )
- ```
- ```{r univar_rf}
- rf_base_data = avg_data %>%
- mutate(group = factor(group, levels = c("NAC", "ASD"))) # ASD is the positive class
- set.seed(123)
- folds = vfold_cv(rf_base_data, v = 5, strata = group)
- mol_names = names(rf_base_data)[str_starts(names(rf_base_data), "mol_")]
- get_cv_rf_auc = function(mol) {
- df = rf_base_data %>% select(group, !!sym(mol))
- rec = recipe(group ~ ., data = df) %>%
- step_zv(all_predictors()) # Remove zero-variance predictors (just in case)
- rf_spec = rand_forest(trees = 500) %>%
- set_mode("classification") %>%
- set_engine("ranger", importance = "none")
- wf = workflow() %>%
- add_recipe(rec) %>%
- add_model(rf_spec)
- res = fit_resamples(
- wf,
- resamples = folds,
- metrics = metric_set(roc_auc),
- control = control_resamples(save_pred = TRUE, verbose = FALSE)
- )
- auc_val = collect_metrics(res) %>%
- filter(.metric == "roc_auc") %>%
- pull(mean)
- tibble(molecule = mol, auc = auc_val)
- }
- rf_auc_all = map_dfr(mol_names, get_cv_rf_auc) %>%
- arrange(desc(auc))
- # rf_auc_all %>%
- # mutate(molecule = fct_reorder(molecule, auc)) %>%
- # ggplot(aes(x = molecule, y = auc)) +
- # geom_col(fill = "#21918c") +
- # coord_flip() +
- # labs(
- # title = "Random Forest Classification Performance by Molecule",
- # y = "Cross-Validated AUC",
- # x = NULL
- # ) +
- # geom_hline(yintercept = 0.5, linetype = "dashed", color = "gray")
- ind_auc_results = map_dfr(mol_names, function(mol) {
- df = avg_data %>% select(group, !!sym(mol))
- rec = recipe(group ~ ., data = df) %>%
- step_zv(all_predictors())
- wf = workflow() %>%
- add_recipe(rec) %>%
- add_model(rand_forest(trees = 500) %>%
- set_mode("classification") %>%
- set_engine("ranger"))
- res = fit_resamples(
- wf, resamples = folds,
- metrics = metric_set(roc_auc),
- control = control_resamples(save_pred = TRUE)
- )
- preds = collect_predictions(res)
- roc_obj = roc(response = preds$group, predictor = preds$.pred_ASD,
- levels = c("NAC", "ASD"), direction = "<", ci = TRUE, boot.n = 2000)
- tibble(
- metabolite = mol,
- auc = as.numeric(auc(roc_obj)),
- ci_low = as.numeric(ci.auc(roc_obj)[1]),
- ci_high = as.numeric(ci.auc(roc_obj)[3])
- )
- }) %>%
- arrange(desc(auc)) %>%
- mutate(
- auc_ci = sprintf("%.3f [%.3f-%.3f]", auc, ci_low, ci_high)
- ) %>%
- select(metabolite, auc_ci) %>%
- left_join(name_map %>% select(mol_name, compound_name), by = c("metabolite" = "mol_name")) %>%
- mutate(metabolite = compound_name) %>%
- select(-compound_name)
- # Table S3
- ind_auc_results %>%
- left_join(name_map %>% select(compound_acronym, compound_name), by = c("metabolite" = "compound_name")) %>%
- mutate(metabolite = str_c(metabolite, " (", compound_acronym, ")")) %>%
- select(-compound_acronym) %>%
- write_csv("output_data/s3_univar_rf_auc.csv")
- ```
- ```{r univar_roc}
- top_molecule = rf_auc_all %>%
- slice_max(auc, n = 3) %>%
- pull(molecule)
- rf_top_data = avg_data %>%
- mutate(group = factor(group, levels = c("NAC", "ASD"))) %>%
- select(group, all_of(top_molecule))
- rec = recipe(group ~ ., data = rf_top_data) %>%
- step_zv(all_predictors())
- rf_spec = rand_forest(trees = 500) %>%
- set_mode("classification") %>%
- set_engine("ranger")
- wf = workflow() %>%
- add_recipe(rec) %>%
- add_model(rf_spec)
- set.seed(123)
- folds = vfold_cv(rf_top_data, v = 5, strata = group)
- res = fit_resamples(
- wf,
- resamples = folds,
- metrics = metric_set(roc_auc),
- control = control_resamples(save_pred = TRUE)
- )
- preds = collect_predictions(res)
- roc_obj = roc(
- response = preds$group,
- predictor = preds$.pred_ASD,
- levels = c("NAC", "ASD"),
- direction = "<",
- ci = TRUE,
- ci.alpha = 0.95,
- boot.n = 2000,
- stratified = FALSE
- )
- roc_df = tibble(
- specificity = rev(roc_obj$specificities),
- sensitivity = rev(roc_obj$sensitivities)
- )
- auc_val = auc(roc_obj)
- ci_vals = ci.auc(roc_obj)
- # ggplot(roc_df, aes(x = 1 - specificity, y = sensitivity)) +
- # geom_line(color = "#21918c", linewidth = 1.2) +
- # geom_abline(linetype = "dashed", color = "gray") +
- # annotate(
- # "text",
- # x = 0.25,
- # y = 0.25,
- # label = sprintf("AUC = %.3f [%.3f–%.3f]", auc_val, ci_vals[1], ci_vals[3]),
- # hjust = 0,
- # size = 5
- # ) +
- # labs(
- # title = paste0("ROC Curve with 95% CI for ", paste0(top_molecule, collapse = ", ")),
- # x = "1 - Specificity",
- # y = "Sensitivity"
- # )
- ```
- ```{r multivar_rf_all, fig.dpi=300, fig.height=10}
- set.seed(123)
- folds = vfold_cv(avg_data, v = 5, strata = group)
- top_mols = rf_auc_all %>%
- slice_max(auc, n = 3) %>%
- pull(molecule)
- model_definitions = tribble(
- ~model_name, ~formula, ~panel_group, ~color,
- "Age", group ~ age, "Demographics", "#21908CFF",
- "Sex", group ~ sex, "Demographics", "#440154FF",
- "Age + Sex", group ~ age + sex, "Demographics", "#FDE725FF",
- "BH4", group ~ mol_bh4, "Metabolites", "#35B779FF",
- "KYN", group ~ mol_kyn, "Metabolites", "#31688EFF",
- "GABA", group ~ mol_gaba, "Metabolites", "#440154FF",
- "BH4 + KYN + GABA", reformulate(top_mols, response = "group"), "Metabolites", "#26828EFF",
- "Age + BH4 + KYN + GABA", reformulate(c("age", top_mols), response = "group"), "Combined", "#5DC863FF",
- "Sex + BH4 + KYN + GABA", reformulate(c("sex", top_mols), response = "group"), "Combined", "#3B528BFF",
- "Age + Sex + BH4 + KYN + GABA", reformulate(c("age", "sex", top_mols), response = "group"), "Combined", "#481567FF"
- )
- get_rf_roc = function(formula, model_label) {
- rec = recipe(formula, data = avg_data) %>%
- step_zv(all_predictors()) %>%
- step_dummy(all_nominal_predictors())
- wf = workflow() %>%
- add_model(rand_forest(trees = 500, mode = "classification") %>%
- set_engine("ranger")) %>%
- add_recipe(rec)
- res = fit_resamples(
- wf, resamples = folds,
- metrics = metric_set(roc_auc),
- control = control_resamples(save_pred = TRUE)
- )
- preds = collect_predictions(res)
- roc_obj = roc(
- response = preds$group,
- predictor = preds$.pred_ASD,
- levels = c("NAC", "ASD"),
- direction = "<",
- ci = TRUE, boot.n = 2000
- )
- tibble(
- model_name = model_label,
- specificity = rev(roc_obj$specificities),
- sensitivity = rev(roc_obj$sensitivities),
- auc = as.numeric(auc(roc_obj)),
- ci_low = as.numeric(ci.auc(roc_obj)[1]),
- ci_high = as.numeric(ci.auc(roc_obj)[3])
- )
- }
- roc_results = model_definitions %>%
- mutate(roc = map2(formula, model_name, get_rf_roc)) %>%
- unnest(roc, names_sep = "_") %>%
- rename(
- specificity = roc_specificity,
- sensitivity = roc_sensitivity,
- auc = roc_auc,
- ci_low = roc_ci_low,
- ci_high = roc_ci_high
- )
- roc_labeled = roc_results %>%
- group_by(model_name) %>%
- mutate(
- label = sprintf("%s\nAUC = %.3f [%.3f-%.3f]", model_name, first(auc), first(ci_low), first(ci_high))
- ) %>%
- ungroup()
- label_order = roc_labeled %>%
- distinct(model_name, label) %>%
- arrange(factor(model_name, levels = model_definitions$model_name)) %>%
- pull(label)
- roc_labeled = roc_labeled %>%
- mutate(label = factor(label, levels = label_order))
- plot_roc_group = function(data, panel) {
- df = filter(data, panel_group == panel)
- ggplot(df, aes(x = 1 - specificity, y = sensitivity, color = label)) +
- geom_line(linewidth = 1) +
- geom_abline(linetype = "dashed", color = "gray") +
- scale_color_manual(values = setNames(df$color, df$label)) +
- labs(
- x = "1-Specificity",
- y = "Sensitivity",
- color = NULL
- ) +
- coord_equal()
- }
- p_demo = plot_roc_group(roc_labeled, "Demographics")
- p_metab = plot_roc_group(roc_labeled, "Metabolites")
- p_combined = plot_roc_group(roc_labeled, "Combined")
- # Figure 3
- p_demo / p_metab / p_combined +
- plot_annotation(tag_levels = "A", tag_prefix = "(", tag_suffix = ")")
- ```
- ```{r multivar_rf_metrics}
- set.seed(123)
- folds = vfold_cv(avg_data, v = 5, strata = group)
- compute_model_metrics = function(formula, label) {
- rec = recipe(formula, data = avg_data) %>%
- step_zv(all_predictors()) %>%
- step_dummy(all_nominal_predictors())
- rf_spec = rand_forest(trees = 500) %>%
- set_mode("classification") %>%
- set_engine("ranger")
- wf = workflow() %>%
- add_model(rf_spec) %>%
- add_recipe(rec)
- res = fit_resamples(
- wf,
- resamples = folds,
- metrics = metric_set(roc_auc, accuracy, sens, spec, precision, recall, f_meas),
- control = control_resamples(save_pred = TRUE)
- )
- preds = collect_predictions(res)
- roc_obj = roc(
- response = preds$group,
- predictor = preds$.pred_ASD,
- levels = c("NAC", "ASD"),
- direction = "<",
- ci = TRUE,
- boot.n = 2000
- )
- auc_val = as.numeric(auc(roc_obj))
- ci_vals = as.numeric(ci.auc(roc_obj))
- metric_vals = preds %>%
- summarise(
- accuracy = accuracy_vec(group, .pred_class),
- sens = sens_vec(group, .pred_class, event_level = "second"),
- spec = spec_vec(group, .pred_class, event_level = "second"),
- precision = precision_vec(group, .pred_class, event_level = "second"),
- recall = recall_vec(group, .pred_class, event_level = "second"),
- f_meas = f_meas_vec(group, .pred_class, event_level = "second")
- )
- tibble(
- model = label,
- auc = auc_val,
- auc_ci_low = ci_vals[1],
- auc_ci_high = ci_vals[3]
- ) %>%
- bind_cols(metric_vals)
- }
- formulas = list(
- "Age" = group ~ age,
- "Sex" = group ~ sex,
- "Age + Sex" = group ~ age + sex,
- "BH4" = group ~ mol_bh4,
- "KYN" = group ~ mol_kyn,
- "GABA" = group ~ mol_gaba,
- "BH4 + KYN + GABA" = reformulate(top_mols, response = "group"),
- "Sex + BH4 + KYN + GABA" = reformulate(c("sex", top_mols), response = "group"),
- "Age + BH4 + KYN + GABA" = reformulate(c("age", top_mols), response = "group"),
- "Age + Sex + BH4 + KYN + GABA" = reformulate(c("age", "sex", top_mols), response = "group")
- )
- metrics_all = imap_dfr(formulas, compute_model_metrics) %>%
- mutate(across(where(is.numeric), ~ round(.x, 3)),
- auc = paste0(auc, " [", auc_ci_low, "-", auc_ci_high, "]")) %>%
- select(-auc_ci_low, -auc_ci_high)
- ```
- ```{r rf_model_comparison}
- # Model comparison to assess whether adding more metabolites
- # improves classification performance beyond the top 3 features.
- set.seed(123)
- folds = vfold_cv(avg_data, v = 5, strata = group)
- # Select metabolite sets
- top3_mols = rf_auc_all %>%
- slice_max(auc, n = 3, with_ties = FALSE) %>%
- pull(molecule)
- top5_mols = rf_auc_all %>%
- slice_max(auc, n = 5, with_ties = FALSE) %>%
- pull(molecule)
- all_mols = names(avg_data)[str_starts(names(avg_data), "mol_")]
- feature_labels = list(
- "Top 3 metabolites" = str_c(top3_mols, collapse = ", "),
- "Top 3 + Trp" = str_c(c(top3_mols, "mol_trp"), collapse = ", "),
- "Top 5 metabolites" = str_c(top5_mols, collapse = ", "),
- "All 18 metabolites" = "All metabolites"
- )
- # Reuse the same modeling framework as in Table S4
- compute_model_metrics_compare = function(formula, label) {
- rec = recipe(formula, data = avg_data) %>%
- step_zv(all_predictors()) %>%
- step_dummy(all_nominal_predictors())
- rf_spec = rand_forest(trees = 500) %>%
- set_mode("classification") %>%
- set_engine("ranger")
- wf = workflow() %>%
- add_model(rf_spec) %>%
- add_recipe(rec)
- res = fit_resamples(
- wf,
- resamples = folds,
- metrics = metric_set(roc_auc),
- control = control_resamples(save_pred = TRUE)
- )
- preds = collect_predictions(res) %>%
- mutate(
- .pred_class = factor(
- if_else(.pred_ASD >= 0.5, "ASD", "NAC"),
- levels = c("NAC", "ASD")
- )
- )
- roc_obj = roc(
- response = preds$group,
- predictor = preds$.pred_ASD,
- levels = c("NAC", "ASD"),
- direction = "<",
- ci = TRUE,
- boot.n = 2000
- )
- auc_val = as.numeric(auc(roc_obj))
- ci_vals = as.numeric(ci.auc(roc_obj))
- metric_vals = preds %>%
- summarise(
- accuracy = accuracy_vec(group, .pred_class),
- sens = sens_vec(group, .pred_class, event_level = "second"),
- spec = spec_vec(group, .pred_class, event_level = "second"),
- precision = precision_vec(group, .pred_class, event_level = "second"),
- f_meas = f_meas_vec(group, .pred_class, event_level = "second")
- )
- tibble(
- model = label,
- auc = auc_val,
- auc_ci_low = ci_vals[1],
- auc_ci_high = ci_vals[3]
- ) %>%
- bind_cols(metric_vals)
- }
- # Define comparison models
- compare_formulas = list(
- "Top 3 metabolites" = reformulate(top3_mols, response = "group"),
- "Top 3 + Trp" = reformulate(c(top3_mols, "mol_trp"), response = "group"),
- "Top 5 metabolites" = reformulate(top5_mols, response = "group"),
- "All 18 metabolites" = reformulate(all_mols, response = "group")
- )
- # Run comparison
- rf_model_compare = imap_dfr(compare_formulas, compute_model_metrics_compare) %>%
- mutate(
- features = feature_labels[model] %>% unlist()
- ) %>%
- mutate(
- across(where(is.numeric), \(x) round(x, 3)),
- auc = paste0(auc, " [", auc_ci_low, "-", auc_ci_high, "]")
- ) %>%
- select(model, features, everything(), -auc_ci_low, -auc_ci_high)
- rf_model_compare
- # Optional export for supplement
- rf_model_compare %>%
- write_csv("output_data/s6_rf_model_comparison.csv")
- ```
- ```{r multivar_rf_calibration, fig.dpi=300, fig.height=10}
- get_calibration_metrics = function(formula, model_label) {
- rec = recipe(formula, data = avg_data) %>%
- step_zv(all_predictors()) %>%
- step_dummy(all_nominal_predictors())
- wf = workflow() %>%
- add_model(rand_forest(trees = 500, mode = "classification") %>% set_engine("ranger")) %>%
- add_recipe(rec)
- res = fit_resamples(
- wf, resamples = folds,
- control = control_resamples(save_pred = TRUE)
- )
- preds = collect_predictions(res) %>%
- mutate(group = factor(group, levels = c("NAC", "ASD"))) # ASD = positive class
- brier = mean((if_else(preds$group == "ASD", 1, 0) - preds$.pred_ASD)^2)
- cal_curve_raw = preds %>%
- transmute(
- pred = .pred_ASD,
- obs = as.integer(group == "ASD"),
- model_name = model_label
- )
- list(
- brier = tibble(model_name = model_label, brier_score = brier),
- curve_raw = cal_curve_raw
- )
- }
- set.seed(123)
- cal_results = model_definitions %>%
- mutate(cal = map2(formula, model_name, get_calibration_metrics))
- brier_all = map_dfr(cal_results$cal, "brier")
- curve_all_raw = map_dfr(cal_results$cal, "curve_raw")
- curve_all_annotated = curve_all_raw %>%
- left_join(model_definitions %>% select(model_name, panel_group, color), by = "model_name") %>%
- left_join(brier_all, by = "model_name") %>%
- mutate(
- label = sprintf("%s\nBrier = %.3f", model_name, brier_score)
- )
- label_order_brier = model_definitions %>%
- left_join(brier_all, by = "model_name") %>%
- mutate(label = sprintf("%s\nBrier = %.3f", model_name, brier_score)) %>%
- pull(label)
- curve_all_annotated = curve_all_annotated %>%
- mutate(label = factor(label, levels = label_order_brier))
- plot_calibration_panel = function(data, panel_name) {
- df = filter(data, panel_group == panel_name)
- ggplot(df, aes(x = pred, y = obs, color = label)) +
- geom_smooth(method = "loess", formula = y ~ x, se = FALSE, span = 1, linewidth = 1) +
- geom_abline(slope = 1, intercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", color = "gray50") +
- scale_color_manual(values = setNames(df$color, df$label)) +
- labs(
- x = "Predicted Probability (ASD)",
- y = "Observed Proportion (ASD)",
- color = NULL
- ) +
- coord_fixed(xlim = c(0, 1), ylim = c(0, 1))
- }
- p_cal_demo = plot_calibration_panel(curve_all_annotated, "Demographics")
- p_cal_metab = plot_calibration_panel(curve_all_annotated, "Metabolites")
- p_cal_combined = plot_calibration_panel(curve_all_annotated, "Combined")
- # Figure 4
- p_cal_demo / p_cal_metab / p_cal_combined +
- plot_annotation(tag_levels = "A", tag_prefix = "(", tag_suffix = ")")
- # Table S4
- metrics_all %>%
- left_join(brier_all %>% mutate(brier_score = signif(brier_score, 3)), by = c("model" = "model_name")) %>%
- write_csv("output_data/s4_multivar_rf_perf_brier_scores.csv")
- ```
- ```{r session-info}
- sessionInfo()
- ```
statistical_analysis.Rmd at commit f07a3a4, under MIT · at the source
Overview
- Fetal-Neonatal Neuroimaging and Developmental Science Center, Division of Newborn Medicine, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, United States
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Center for Drug Discovery, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States
- Athinoula A. Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital, Charlestown, MA, United States
- Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Barnett Institute for Chemical and Biological Analysis, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States
- Department of Medicine and Psychiatry, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, United States
Abstract
Background: Gut-brain axis dysregulation and microbiome-linked metabolic alterations have been implicated in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but the contribution of gut-derived neuroactive metabolites remains incompletely characterized.
Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional case-control study of 59 participants (32 ASD, 27 controls) and quantified 18 stool metabolites related to catecholamine synthesis, inhibitory neurotransmission, and tryptophan-linked NAD+-precursor metabolism using targeted liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Group differences were assessed using fold-change analysis and linear models adjusted for age and sex. Random forest models evaluated classification performance, and within-group Spearman correlations were used to examine metabolic relationships.
Results: Norepinephrine showed the largest increase in ASD, whereas dopamine and tetrahydrobiopterin exhibited nominal group differences that did not remain significant after correction for multiple testing. A three-metabolite panel comprising tetrahydrobiopterin, γ-aminobutyric acid, and kynurenine showed exploratory discrimination between groups (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.750, 95% confidence interval 0.622–0.878), but this performance requires external validation. Correlation analysis revealed conserved bile acid coupling in both groups. In controls, tryptophan was positively associated with kynurenine, whereas this relationship was not observed in ASD. Instead, ASD samples showed broader associations between tryptophan and metabolites linked to neurotransmission and NAD+-precursor metabolism.
Conclusion: Stool metabolite profiling revealed altered organization of tryptophan- and catecholamine-linked metabolic associations in ASD and identified a small metabolite panel with exploratory discriminative potential. These findings provide a foundation for future studies examining gut-derived neuroactive metabolites in ASD and their relationship to gut-brain axis biology.
Reproduced under the paper's license (CC BY), from the paper cited above.
Repository
Its files are read in the Code ↔ Paper reader above, with 4 matches between paragraphs and lines of code.
kevinliu-bmb/targeted-asd-stool-metabolomics
f07a3a45dec086833da3a29b2dcc84d758b69361, 4 July 2026Availability: 1 check, the latest on 27 September 2026: the link answers
- 27 September 2026: the link answers
3 files
- statistical_analysis.Rmd
— R, 1,040 lines, 4 matches - LICENSE — License, 21 lines
- README.md — Text, 4 lines
Tracing map
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The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.
Reproduced under the paper's license (CC BY), from the paper cited above.
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Version 1, 27 September 2026: the first record
Recorded: type, language, journal, volume, pages, dates, 11 authors, 8 keywords, 2 funders, 61 references.
Cite
This paper
Liu, K., Li, H., Zhang, S., Xi, M., Zhu, J., Chen, J., Xu, W., Xie, A., Makriyannis, A., Guo, J. J., & Kong, X.-J. (2026). Targeted stool metabolomics suggests exploratory catecholamine- and tryptophan-linked metabolic features in autism spectrum disorder. Frontiers in neuroscience, 20, 1858005. https://
BibTeX
@article{liu2026targeted
author = {Liu, Kevin and Li, Huixi and Zhang, Shaohan and Xi, Muya and Zhu, Junru and Chen, Jonathan and Xu, William and Xie, Alexander and Makriyannis, Alexandros and Guo, Jason J. and Kong, Xue-Jun},
title = {{Targeted stool metabolomics suggests exploratory catecholamine- and tryptophan-linked metabolic features in autism spectrum disorder}},
journal = {Frontiers in neuroscience},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
volume = {20},
pages = {1858005},
publisher = {Frontiers Media SA},
issn = {1662-4548},
doi = {10.3389/
url = {https://
pmid = {42490967},
pmcid = {PMC13375968}
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
AU - Liu, Kevin
AU - Li, Huixi
AU - Zhang, Shaohan
AU - Xi, Muya
AU - Zhu, Junru
AU - Chen, Jonathan
AU - Xu, William
AU - Xie, Alexander
AU - Makriyannis, Alexandros
AU - Guo, Jason J.
AU - Kong, Xue-Jun
TI - Targeted stool metabolomics suggests exploratory catecholamine- and tryptophan-linked metabolic features in autism spectrum disorder
T2 - Frontiers in neuroscience
J2 - Front Neurosci
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/
VL - 20
SP - 1858005
SN - 1662-4548
PB - Frontiers Media SA
DO - 10.3389/
UR - https://
LA - en
ER -
CSL-JSON
{
"id": "10.3389/
"type": "article-journal",
"title": "Targeted stool metabolomics suggests exploratory catecholamine- and tryptophan-linked metabolic features in autism spectrum disorder",
"container-title": "Frontiers in neuroscience",
"author": [
{
"family": "Liu",
"given": "Kevin"
},
{
"family": "Li",
"given": "Huixi"
},
{
"family": "Zhang",
"given": "Shaohan"
},
{
"family": "Xi",
"given": "Muya"
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{
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"given": "Junru"
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{
"family": "Chen",
"given": "Jonathan"
},
{
"family": "Xu",
"given": "William"
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{
"family": "Xie",
"given": "Alexander"
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{
"family": "Makriyannis",
"given": "Alexandros"
},
{
"family": "Guo",
"given": "Jason J."
},
{
"family": "Kong",
"given": "Xue-Jun"
}
],
"container-title-short":
"volume": "20",
"page": "1858005",
"DOI": "10.3389/
"PMID": "42490967",
"PMCID": "PMC13375968",
"ISSN": "1662-4548",
"publisher": "Frontiers Media SA",
"URL": "https://
"language": "en",
"issued": {
"date-parts": [
[
2026,
7,
3
]
]
}
}
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You validate the map as this page shows it: 1 repository of the authors' code, each at its verified commit and with its license, 1 script, and 4 matches between paragraphs and code (see the Code and Map sections). It then receives a DOI on Zenodo, with you (your ORCID iD) and OSCR as its creators; the code itself is not deposited.
The map's fingerprint: sha256:e4ac392b35097eae…
Add the badge to its README
The badge links the code to this page. Copy one of these into the README of the paper's code: only you decide where it goes, and nothing is changed for you.
Markdown
[, paste the snippet at the top, then “Commit changes…” and, to review it first, “Create a new branch and start a pull request”. You open the pull request; OSCR asks for no permission.
Request its removal
To ask OSCR to remove this record, the copies of its authors' scripts or its tracing map, use the removal request page: signed in, you say who you are, what to remove and why, then review and confirm the request. Published rules decide every request (how).
Discussion, reproductions, activity
Discussion: questions and error reports about this paper and its code, from signed-in readers and its authors. It opens with sign-in.
Reproductions: reports from readers who ran the authors' code: what they reproduced, with which environment, commit and data. It opens with sign-in.
Activity: what happens around this paper: new versions of its record, its map's validation, discussions and reproductions. It opens with sign-in.
