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Estimating the time course of biomarker changes in Alzheimer's disease.

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  1. [1] § Materials and methods › Participants › Inclusion criteria ↔ R/data.R, the whole file · a weak match · score 0.55 · subjective cognitive, ADAS cog, baseline, status, dementia, MCI
  2. [2] § Materials and methods › Model validation ↔ R/data.R, the whole file · a weak match · score 0.54 · ADAS cog, predicted disease, scores, longitudinal, dementia, MCI

Paper

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The authors' code

R · 34 lines · 1.4 KB · no license · 2 matches

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Overview

Authors: Lars Lau Raket1,2, Alexa Pichet Binette1, Niklas Mattsson-Carlgren1,3,4, Shorena Janelidze1, Henrik Zetterberg5,6,7,8,9,10, Nicholas J Ashton5,11,12, Kaj Blennow5,6, Erik Stomrud1,13, Sebastian Palmqvist1,13, Oskar Hansson1,13
13 affiliations
  1. Clinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University, Lund 223 62, Sweden
  2. Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN 46285, USA
  3. Department of Neurology, Skåne University Hospital, Lund University, Lund 221 85, Sweden
  4. Wallenberg Center for Molecular Medicine, Lund University, Lund 223 62, Sweden
  5. Department of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Mölndal 431 39, Sweden
  6. Clinical Neurochemistry Laboratory, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Mölndal 431 39, Sweden
  7. Department of Neurodegenerative Disease, UCL Institute of Neurology, London WC1N 3BG, UK
  8. UK Dementia Research Institute at UCL, London NW1 3BT, UK
  9. Hong Kong Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong 999077, China
  10. Wisconsin Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53792, USA
  11. Banner Alzheimer’s Institute and University of Arizona, Phoenix, AZ 85006, USA
  12. Banner Sun Health Research Institute, Sun City, AZ 85351, USA
  13. Memory Clinic, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö 211 46, Sweden
Journal: Brain : a journal of neurology, volume 149, issue 6, pages 1929-1943
Dates: received 17 December 2024; accepted 29 September 2025; published online 3 November 2025; in print June 2026
Type: Research article · Language: English
License: CC BY
Identifiers: DOI 10.1093/brain/awaf413 · PMID 41178353 · PMCID PMC13232038 · OpenAlex W4415838904
Open access: hybrid, a free copy (OpenAlex)
Status: code verified
Categories: structural MRI / diffusion (modality), PET / SPECT (modality), human (organism), Alzheimer's / dementia (population), clinical / translational (subfield)
Methods: Connectivity, Statistics, fMRI & imaging, Preprocessing
Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, biomarkers, disease progression, CSF, PET, amyloid-beta
MeSH: Alzheimer Disease*, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Amyloid beta-Peptides, Biomarkers, Disease Progression, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Positron-Emission Tomography, tau Proteins, Time Factors (* major topic)
Topic: Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research (Psychiatry and Mental health, Medicine), according to OpenAlex
Funding: National Institute on Aging (R01AG083740); European Research Council (ADG-101096455, ADG-101053962); Alzheimer's Association (ZEN24-1069572, SG-23-1061717); GHR Foundation; Vetenskapsrådet (2022-00775, 2023-00356, 2022-01018, 2019-02397); ERA PerMED (ERAPERMED2021-184); Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse (2022-0231); Lunds Universitet; Swedish Alzheimer Foundation (AF-980907); Hjärnfonden (Swedish Brain Foundation) (FO2021-0293); Parkinson's Foundation (1412/22); Cure Alzheimer's Fund (CAF); Rönström Family Foundation; Konung Gustaf V:s och Drottning Victorias Frimurarestiftelse; Skånes universitetssjukhus (2020-O000028); Regionalt Forskningsstöd (2022-1259); Government of Sweden (2022-Projekt0080, ALFGBG-71320)
Citations: cited by 11 papers (Europe PMC); 69 references in the paper

Abstract

Recent advancements in biomarkers have transformed Alzheimer’s disease (AD) diagnosis from being purely symptom-based to include biological criteria. With new treatments targeting the core biology of Alzheimer’s disease, understanding the timeline of biological changes is crucial as the disease progresses over decades.

Longitudinal data from amyloid-beta (Aβ) PET and cognitive tests [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale–Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-cog)] from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (n = 1448) and BioFINDER (n = 2088) were used to stage patients against an estimated continuous disease timeline (predicted time since Aβ-PET positivity). The estimated timeline was validated by comparing correlations with unseen biomarkers and cognitive measures against alternative staging approaches. Trajectories for plasma, CSF, MRI and PET biomarkers, measuring Aβ, tau and neurodegeneration, were mapped along this Alzheimer’s disease continuum.

The proposed staging approach was found to produce stronger correlations with unseen cognitive measures and biomarkers compared to alternative staging methods, including amyloid and tau PET clocks (all pairwise P < 0.05). Findings related to biomarker trajectories were highly consistent across cohorts. The period from Aβ-PET positivity to end-stage Alzheimer’s disease dementia (MMSE = 0) was estimated at 20–25 years, with a presymptomatic phase of 7–11 years. CSF Aβ42/Aβ40 became abnormal about a year before Aβ-PET positivity, CSF phosphorylated-tau (p-tau)231, p-tau217 and plasma phosphorylated/neuritic plaque-tau217 1–3 years after, and tau-PET about 8 years after. Neurodegenerative biomarkers, such as hippocampal volume, became clearly abnormal in early dementia stages, 14–16 years after Aβ-PET positivity.

The progression from initial biomarker abnormality to severe Alzheimer’s disease spans two decades. Disease progression modelling elucidates the evolution of AD biomarkers and cognition, highlighting the relative timing of biomarker abnormalities. These models can determine disease stages, aiding in prognosis and the evaluation of disease-modifying treatments.

Reproduced under the paper's license (CC BY), from the paper cited above.

Repository

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larslau/progmod

License: none: the authors keep all their rights
State: the link answers, verified on 27 September 2026
Evidence: files inventoried
Commit: d374fb34a87d469891ab675f2c7294676e62dec9, 5 April 2022
Languages: R (2)
Size: 14 files, 2 scripts
Software Heritage: archived
Found in: the references
Holds: README, environment (DESCRIPTION), documentation
Not found: license file, CITATION.cff, tests, continuous integration
Tools: nlme (1 file)
Availability: 1 check, the latest on 27 September 2026: the link answers
  • 27 September 2026: the link answers
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  • R/data.R — R, 34 lines, 2 matches, shown from its source
  • R/progmod.R — R, 307 lines, shown from its source
  • README.md — Text, 45 lines, shown from its source

Tracing map

Proposed by the machine: these links were found in the paper and verified at the source, without human review. The map will receive a Zenodo DOI once one of the paper's authors has validated it with their ORCID.

What the map holds:

  • 1 repository of the authors' code, each at its verified commit, with its license and how the link was found in the paper;
  • 2 scripts, each with its path and the digest of its content;
  • 2 matches between paragraphs of the paper and lines of the code (method lexical-v1);
  • neither the text of the paper nor the code itself.

Its JSON (tracing-map.json) is deposited on Zenodo with its DOI once the map is validated.

Data

No dataset and no data link were found in the paper.

Data availability

ADNI data is available to qualified academic investigators submitting an online application for access. For more information, please see the ADNI website http://adni.loni.usc.edu/.

Pseudonymized data from BioFINDER will be made available by request from a qualified academic investigator for the sole purpose of replicating procedures and results presented in the article and if data transfer is in agreement with EU legislation on the general data protection regulation and decisions by the Ethical Review Board of Sweden and Region Skåne, which should be regulated in a material transfer agreement.

Reproduced under the paper's license (CC BY), from the paper cited above.

Versions

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Version 1, 27 September 2026: the first record

Recorded: type, language, journal, volume, issue, pages, dates, 10 authors, 6 keywords, 14 MeSH terms, 17 funders, 62 references.

Cite

This paper

Raket, L. L., Binette, A. P., Mattsson-Carlgren, N., Janelidze, S., Zetterberg, H., Ashton, N. J., Blennow, K., Stomrud, E., Palmqvist, S., & Hansson, O. (2026). Estimating the time course of biomarker changes in Alzheimer's disease. Brain : a journal of neurology, 149(6), 1929-1943. https://doi.org/10.1093/brain/awaf413

BibTeX

@article{raket2026estimating,
author = {Raket, Lars Lau and Binette, Alexa Pichet and Mattsson-Carlgren, Niklas and Janelidze, Shorena and Zetterberg, Henrik and Ashton, Nicholas J and Blennow, Kaj and Stomrud, Erik and Palmqvist, Sebastian and Hansson, Oskar},
title = {{Estimating the time course of biomarker changes in Alzheimer's disease}},
journal = {Brain : a journal of neurology},
year = {2026},
month = jun,
volume = {149},
number = {6},
pages = {1929--1943},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
issn = {0006-8950},
doi = {10.1093/brain/awaf413},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/brain/awaf413},
pmid = {41178353},
pmcid = {PMC13232038}
}

RIS

TY - JOUR
AU - Raket, Lars Lau
AU - Binette, Alexa Pichet
AU - Mattsson-Carlgren, Niklas
AU - Janelidze, Shorena
AU - Zetterberg, Henrik
AU - Ashton, Nicholas J
AU - Blennow, Kaj
AU - Stomrud, Erik
AU - Palmqvist, Sebastian
AU - Hansson, Oskar
TI - Estimating the time course of biomarker changes in Alzheimer's disease
T2 - Brain : a journal of neurology
J2 - Brain
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/06/01
VL - 149
IS - 6
SP - 1929
EP - 1943
SN - 0006-8950
PB - Oxford University Press
DO - 10.1093/brain/awaf413
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/brain/awaf413
LA - en
ER -

CSL-JSON

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